Iran closes its airspace by...?

{
  "id": "438327",
  "ticker": "iran-closes-its-airspace-by",
  "slug": "iran-closes-its-airspace-by",
  "title": "Iran closes its airspace by...?",
  "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). \n\nAny non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).\n\nQualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/).\n\nWarnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nAirspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.",
  "resolutionSource": "",
  "startDate": "2026-05-01T18:22:49.431559Z",
  "creationDate": "2026-05-01T18:22:49.431549Z",
  "endDate": "2026-05-31T00:00:00Z",
  "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-iran-close-its-airspace-by-Djo8VXRKur_C.jpg",
  "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-iran-close-its-airspace-by-Djo8VXRKur_C.jpg",
  "active": true,
  "closed": false,
  "archived": false,
  "new": false,
  "featured": true,
  "restricted": true,
  "liquidity": 188443.704,
  "volume": 394548.4563679998,
  "openInterest": 217160.33971200002,
  "createdAt": "2026-05-01T16:11:36.585944Z",
  "updatedAt": "2026-05-03T10:10:54.86076Z",
  "competitive": 0.9880446596186148,
  "volume24hr": 334024.9041559999,
  "volume1wk": 394548.45636799955,
  "volume1mo": 394548.45636799955,
  "volume1yr": 394548.45636799955,
  "enableOrderBook": true,
  "liquidityClob": 188443.704,
  "negRisk": false,
  "commentCount": 27,
  "markets": [
    {
      "id": "2133404",
      "question": "Iran closes its airspace by May 8?",
      "conditionId": "0x2135ffcb43ba9103bb6acf7116d2d5aa98bef6d9eb3dc9c85ea00cb79513f3ec",
      "slug": "iran-closes-its-airspace-by-may-8",
      "endDate": "2026-05-31T00:00:00Z",
      "liquidity": "211117.8729",
      "startDate": "2026-05-01T18:19:57.887506Z",
      "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-iran-close-its-airspace-by-Djo8VXRKur_C.jpg",
      "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-iran-close-its-airspace-by-Djo8VXRKur_C.jpg",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). \n\nAny non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).\n\nQualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/).\n\nWarnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nAirspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.",
      "outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
      "outcomePrices": "[\"0.145\", \"0.855\"]",
      "volume": "328716.5854959998",
      "active": true,
      "closed": false,
      "marketMakerAddress": "",
      "createdAt": "2026-05-01T16:11:36.966226Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-05-03T10:09:42.998391Z",
      "new": false,
      "featured": false,
      "submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
      "archived": false,
      "resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
      "restricted": true,
      "groupItemTitle": "May 8",
      "groupItemThreshold": "0",
      "questionID": "0x45fa772dfdd8f89af7d7555a350cf3cb230dd7c98f4f0b4c1bcbb0aebd70afb6",
      "enableOrderBook": true,
      "orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.01,
      "orderMinSize": 5,
      "volumeNum": 328716.5854959998,
      "liquidityNum": 211117.8729,
      "endDateIso": "2026-05-31",
      "startDateIso": "2026-05-01",
      "hasReviewedDates": true,
      "volume24hr": 273656.3902409999,
      "volume1wk": 328716.5854959996,
      "volume1mo": 328716.5854959996,
      "volume1yr": 328716.5854959996,
      "clobTokenIds": "[\"92837230145827111699047765291253116935174408333713428554327237019578844028510\", \"16016908434025167220243178590358637924061830475505554559071284592301005386647\"]",
      "umaBond": "500",
      "umaReward": "5",
      "volume24hrClob": 273656.3902409999,
      "volume1wkClob": 328716.5854959996,
      "volume1moClob": 328716.5854959996,
      "volume1yrClob": 328716.5854959996,
      "volumeClob": 328716.5854959998,
      "liquidityClob": 211117.8729,
      "customLiveness": 0,
      "acceptingOrders": true,
      "negRisk": false,
      "negRiskRequestID": "",
      "ready": false,
      "funded": false,
      "acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-05-01T18:18:54Z",
      "cyom": false,
      "competitive": 0.8880797495615106,
      "pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
      "approved": true,
      "clobRewards": [
        {
          "id": "307659",
          "conditionId": "0x2135ffcb43ba9103bb6acf7116d2d5aa98bef6d9eb3dc9c85ea00cb79513f3ec",
          "assetAddress": "0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174",
          "rewardsAmount": 0,
          "rewardsDailyRate": 600,
          "startDate": "2026-05-01",
          "endDate": "2500-12-31"
        }
      ],
      "rewardsMinSize": 200,
      "rewardsMaxSpread": 4.5,
      "spread": 0.01,
      "oneDayPriceChange": -0.03,
      "lastTradePrice": 0.15,
      "bestBid": 0.14,
      "bestAsk": 0.15,
      "automaticallyActive": true,
      "clearBookOnStart": true,
      "showGmpSeries": false,
      "showGmpOutcome": false,
      "manualActivation": false,
      "negRiskOther": false,
      "umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
      "pendingDeployment": false,
      "deploying": false,
      "deployingTimestamp": "2026-05-01T18:17:37.742716Z",
      "rfqEnabled": false,
      "holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
      "feesEnabled": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false,
      "feeType": null
    },
    {
      "id": "2133405",
      "question": "Iran closes its airspace by May 31?",
      "conditionId": "0xb7dd41c16cd5b59e543ffcdab6a0d876f5ccef5329ea42ef1798d80c9a2b8499",
      "slug": "iran-closes-its-airspace-by-may-31",
      "endDate": "2026-05-31T00:00:00Z",
      "liquidity": "52373.1855",
      "startDate": "2026-05-01T18:19:59.970397Z",
      "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-iran-close-its-airspace-by-Djo8VXRKur_C.jpg",
      "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-iran-close-its-airspace-by-Djo8VXRKur_C.jpg",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). \n\nAny non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).\n\nQualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/).\n\nWarnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nAirspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.",
      "outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
      "outcomePrices": "[\"0.39\", \"0.61\"]",
      "volume": "66033.08087200004",
      "active": true,
      "closed": false,
      "marketMakerAddress": "",
      "createdAt": "2026-05-01T16:11:37.46332Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-05-03T10:09:09.108442Z",
      "new": false,
      "featured": false,
      "submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
      "archived": false,
      "resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
      "restricted": true,
      "groupItemTitle": "May 31",
      "groupItemThreshold": "1",
      "questionID": "0x62f11c8b1008b55a503f1f453afff2fbdc407472100d9b0a010e2bf0313f8de0",
      "enableOrderBook": true,
      "orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.01,
      "orderMinSize": 5,
      "volumeNum": 66033.08087200004,
      "liquidityNum": 52373.1855,
      "endDateIso": "2026-05-31",
      "startDateIso": "2026-05-01",
      "hasReviewedDates": true,
      "volume24hr": 60433.85724999999,
      "volume1wk": 66033.08087199996,
      "volume1mo": 66033.08087199996,
      "volume1yr": 66033.08087199996,
      "clobTokenIds": "[\"110474507112100782314899291119134194443200805577700445554821199693457132940419\", \"7007479687771393426472496359544619082990700938465691884192299930471909724308\"]",
      "umaBond": "500",
      "umaReward": "5",
      "volume24hrClob": 60433.85724999999,
      "volume1wkClob": 66033.08087199996,
      "volume1moClob": 66033.08087199996,
      "volume1yrClob": 66033.08087199996,
      "volumeClob": 66033.08087200004,
      "liquidityClob": 52373.1855,
      "customLiveness": 0,
      "acceptingOrders": true,
      "negRisk": false,
      "negRiskRequestID": "",
      "ready": false,
      "funded": false,
      "acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-05-01T18:18:56Z",
      "cyom": false,
      "competitive": 0.9880446596186148,
      "pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
      "approved": true,
      "clobRewards": [
        {
          "id": "307658",
          "conditionId": "0xb7dd41c16cd5b59e543ffcdab6a0d876f5ccef5329ea42ef1798d80c9a2b8499",
          "assetAddress": "0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174",
          "rewardsAmount": 0,
          "rewardsDailyRate": 30,
          "startDate": "2026-05-01",
          "endDate": "2500-12-31"
        }
      ],
      "rewardsMinSize": 200,
      "rewardsMaxSpread": 4.5,
      "spread": 0.02,
      "oneDayPriceChange": -0.015,
      "lastTradePrice": 0.4,
      "bestBid": 0.38,
      "bestAsk": 0.4,
      "automaticallyActive": true,
      "clearBookOnStart": true,
      "showGmpSeries": false,
      "showGmpOutcome": false,
      "manualActivation": false,
      "negRiskOther": false,
      "umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
      "pendingDeployment": false,
      "deploying": false,
      "deployingTimestamp": "2026-05-01T18:17:37.744315Z",
      "rfqEnabled": false,
      "holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
      "feesEnabled": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false,
      "feeType": null
    }
  ],
  "tags": [
    {
      "id": "2",
      "label": "Politics",
      "slug": "politics",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-10-25 18:55:50.674+00",
      "updatedBy": 13,
      "createdAt": "2023-10-25T18:55:50.681Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-04-17T20:39:54.201881Z",
      "forceHide": true,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "100265",
      "label": "Geopolitics",
      "slug": "geopolitics",
      "forceShow": true,
      "createdAt": "2024-06-12T20:13:03.615956Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-04-17T20:49:04.209055Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "104039",
      "label": "U.S. x Iran",
      "slug": "trump-iran",
      "forceShow": false,
      "createdAt": "2026-03-02T20:09:15.156731Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-04-17T20:30:08.870525Z",
      "isCarousel": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "78",
      "label": "Iran",
      "slug": "iran",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:16:51.647+00",
      "updatedBy": 15,
      "createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:16:51.667Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-04-17T20:19:53.890971Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    }
  ],
  "cyom": false,
  "showAllOutcomes": true,
  "showMarketImages": false,
  "enableNegRisk": false,
  "automaticallyActive": true,
  "gmpChartMode": "default",
  "negRiskAugmented": false,
  "featuredOrder": 4,
  "pendingDeployment": false,
  "deploying": false,
  "requiresTranslation": false,
  "eventMetadata": {
    "context_description": "Ongoing US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military targets since late February 2026 prompted repeated Tehran FIR closures via NOTAMs, disrupting global flights through March, with partial reopenings by mid-April enabling limited international operations from Imam Khomeini Airport. Reports of full suspensions around April 30 and fresh Israel-Iran energy infrastructure tensions have sustained volatility, driving trader consensus to price a leading 40% implied probability for closure by May 31 versus 19% by May 8. No confirmed shutdown in the past 48 hours, but escalation signals, Strait of Hormuz restrictions, or failed diplomacy could prompt rapid restrictions, while de-escalation might avert further disruptions before June.",
    "context_requires_regen": true,
    "context_updated_at": "2026-05-03T10:06:45.159Z"
  }
}