March Inflation US - Annual (Higher Brackets)
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending March 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Ticker
march-inflation-us-annual-higher-brackets
Volume
1.2M
Open interest
188.9K
Liquidity
—
Start
Mar 11, 2026
End
Apr 10, 2026
Status
Closed
Access
Restricted
Created
Mar 11, 2026
Event ID
261155
Slug
march-inflation-us-annual-higher-brackets
Markets
9
Raw event data
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"context_description": "Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for March 2026 US annual CPI inflation at exactly 3.3%, confirmed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics release on April 10 showing a year-over-year rise to 3.3% from February's 2.4%, the sharpest monthly jump since 2022. This surge stems from a 10.9% energy index increase—led by 21.2% gasoline gains amid escalating Iran-related geopolitical tensions boosting oil prices—aligning with pre-release economist forecasts around 3.3%. Core CPI also accelerated, reinforcing sticky inflation pressures. While BLS data carries high finality, rare methodological revisions or data corrections could theoretically challenge resolution, though historical precedent suggests minimal risk ahead of the next April report on May 12.",
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}Related stocks
Tickers mapped from the event's catalyst themes.
WMT
Walmart Inc.
Consumer inflation
Inflation and consumer stress can move unit demand, basket size, traffic, and margin pressure for retailers and consumer brands.
TGT
Target Corporation
Consumer inflation
Inflation and consumer stress can move unit demand, basket size, traffic, and margin pressure for retailers and consumer brands.
COST
Costco Wholesale Corporation
Consumer inflation
Inflation and consumer stress can move unit demand, basket size, traffic, and margin pressure for retailers and consumer brands.
DG
Dollar General
Consumer inflation
Inflation and consumer stress can move unit demand, basket size, traffic, and margin pressure for retailers and consumer brands.
DLTR
Dollar Tree
Consumer inflation
Inflation and consumer stress can move unit demand, basket size, traffic, and margin pressure for retailers and consumer brands.
PG
Procter & Gamble Company
Consumer inflation
Inflation and consumer stress can move unit demand, basket size, traffic, and margin pressure for retailers and consumer brands.
PEP
PepsiCo Inc.
Consumer inflation
Inflation and consumer stress can move unit demand, basket size, traffic, and margin pressure for retailers and consumer brands.
KO
Coca-Cola Company
Consumer inflation
Inflation and consumer stress can move unit demand, basket size, traffic, and margin pressure for retailers and consumer brands.
MCD
McDonald's Corporation
Consumer inflation
Inflation and consumer stress can move unit demand, basket size, traffic, and margin pressure for retailers and consumer brands.
SBUX
Starbucks Corporation
Consumer inflation
Inflation and consumer stress can move unit demand, basket size, traffic, and margin pressure for retailers and consumer brands.
NKE
NIKE Inc.
Consumer inflation
Inflation and consumer stress can move unit demand, basket size, traffic, and margin pressure for retailers and consumer brands.
HD
Home Depot Inc.
Fed rates and inflation
Rates and inflation affect discount rates, loan demand, credit quality, consumer spending, housing, and long-duration equity multiples.
JPM
JPMorgan Chase & Co.
Fed rates and inflation
Rates and inflation affect discount rates, loan demand, credit quality, consumer spending, housing, and long-duration equity multiples.
LOW
Lowe's Companies Inc.
Fed rates and inflation
Rates and inflation affect discount rates, loan demand, credit quality, consumer spending, housing, and long-duration equity multiples.
- Will annual inflation increase by 3.3% in March?Vol 216.6KLiq —End Apr 10, 2026Closed
- Will annual inflation increase by ≥3.4% in March?Vol 308.3KLiq —End Apr 10, 2026Closed
- Will annual inflation increase by ≤2.6% in March?Vol 145.1KLiq —End Apr 10, 2026Closed
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% in March?Vol 136.8KLiq —End Apr 10, 2026Closed
- Will annual inflation increase by 3.1% in March?Vol 134.6KLiq —End Apr 10, 2026Closed
- Will annual inflation increase by 3.0% in March?Vol 81.1KLiq —End Apr 10, 2026Closed
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in March?Vol 76.1KLiq —End Apr 10, 2026Closed
- Will annual inflation increase by 3.2% in March?Vol 72.5KLiq —End Apr 10, 2026Closed
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.8% in March?Vol 71.6KLiq —End Apr 10, 2026Closed