US economic state at the end of 2026?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release. This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026. If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026. This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%. This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%. This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%. This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%. The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
Ticker
us-economic-state-at-the-end-of-2026
Volume
70.1K
24h volume
289
1w volume
3.0K
Open interest
6.8K
Liquidity
9.8K
Liquidity CLOB
9.8K
Start
Apr 24, 2026
End
Jan 31, 2027
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Apr 24, 2026
Event ID
413893
Slug
us-economic-state-at-the-end-of-2026
Markets
4
Raw event data
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"description": "The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.\n\nIf either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.",
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"startDateIso": "2026-04-24",
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"oneMonthPriceChange": -0.0195,
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"bestBid": 0.002,
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"automaticallyActive": true,
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"deployingTimestamp": "2026-04-24T21:47:11.8481Z",
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"tags": [
{
"id": "100328",
"label": "Economy",
"slug": "economy",
"forceShow": false,
"createdAt": "2024-08-05T05:34:54.235643Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-04-17T20:29:06.948273Z",
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{
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"label": "CPI",
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{
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"label": "unemployment",
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"updatedAt": "2026-04-17T21:11:06.399249Z",
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{
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"label": "Inflation",
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"publishedAt": "2023-12-11 19:05:53.075+00",
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"updatedAt": "2026-04-17T20:31:50.167106Z",
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"eventMetadata": {
"context_description": "Recent July 2026 data showing the unemployment rate at 4.1% and headline CPI inflation easing to 3.4% year-over-year anchor trader sentiment for a soft landing at year-end, with market-implied odds at 63.5%. Resilient labor demand has kept joblessness well below the 5.0% threshold while moderating price pressures—supported by subdued core readings around 2.5%—reduce overheating risks despite energy price volatility from geopolitical factors. The Federal Reserve’s patient stance on rates, with markets pricing limited further tightening, reinforces expectations that the economy will avoid stagflation or slack scenarios priced below 3%. Upcoming August CPI and employment reports, plus the September FOMC meeting, remain key near-term catalysts that could shift the balance between the 63.5% soft-landing and 35.5% overheating outcomes.",
"context_requires_regen": true,
"context_updated_at": "2026-08-18T17:32:14.116Z"
},
"version": "v1"
}Related stocks
Tickers mapped from the event's catalyst themes.
JPM
JPMorgan Chase & Co.
Fed rates and inflation
Rates and inflation affect discount rates, loan demand, credit quality, consumer spending, housing, and long-duration equity multiples.
BAC
Bank of America Corporation
Fed rates and inflation
Rates and inflation affect discount rates, loan demand, credit quality, consumer spending, housing, and long-duration equity multiples.
WMT
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Consumer inflation
Inflation and consumer stress can move unit demand, basket size, traffic, and margin pressure for retailers and consumer brands.
WFC
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Fed rates and inflation
Rates and inflation affect discount rates, loan demand, credit quality, consumer spending, housing, and long-duration equity multiples.
TGT
Target Corporation
Consumer inflation
Inflation and consumer stress can move unit demand, basket size, traffic, and margin pressure for retailers and consumer brands.
C
Citigroup Inc.
Fed rates and inflation
Rates and inflation affect discount rates, loan demand, credit quality, consumer spending, housing, and long-duration equity multiples.
COST
Costco Wholesale Corporation
Consumer inflation
Inflation and consumer stress can move unit demand, basket size, traffic, and margin pressure for retailers and consumer brands.
GS
Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
Fed rates and inflation
Rates and inflation affect discount rates, loan demand, credit quality, consumer spending, housing, and long-duration equity multiples.
DG
Dollar General
Consumer inflation
Inflation and consumer stress can move unit demand, basket size, traffic, and margin pressure for retailers and consumer brands.
MS
Morgan Stanley
Fed rates and inflation
Rates and inflation affect discount rates, loan demand, credit quality, consumer spending, housing, and long-duration equity multiples.
DLTR
Dollar Tree
Consumer inflation
Inflation and consumer stress can move unit demand, basket size, traffic, and margin pressure for retailers and consumer brands.
SCHW
Charles Schwab Corporation
Fed rates and inflation
Rates and inflation affect discount rates, loan demand, credit quality, consumer spending, housing, and long-duration equity multiples.
PG
Procter & Gamble Company
Consumer inflation
Inflation and consumer stress can move unit demand, basket size, traffic, and margin pressure for retailers and consumer brands.
COF
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Fed rates and inflation
Rates and inflation affect discount rates, loan demand, credit quality, consumer spending, housing, and long-duration equity multiples.
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