US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

Name: US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
Start: 2026-03-31T21:53:43.811955Z
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00Z
Prediction market · Polymarket
Featured
Overview

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify. Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ticker
us-obtains-iranian-enriched-uranium-by
Volume
5.1M
24h volume
1.8M
1w volume
3.4M
Open interest
1.8M
Liquidity
268.1K
Liquidity CLOB
268.1K
Start
Mar 31, 2026
End
Dec 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Mar 31, 2026
Event ID
329654
Slug
us-obtains-iranian-enriched-uranium-by
Markets
Tags
Trump Iran U.S. x Iran Geopolitics Iran Ceasefire Politics
Raw event data
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    "context_description": "President Trump's recent claim that Iran has agreed to transfer its enriched uranium stockpile—termed \"nuclear dust\" by him—has fueled speculation in US-Iran nuclear talks, but Tehran swiftly rejected any such handover, insisting its material will remain in place. This follows 2025 US airstrikes that degraded but did not destroy Iran's nuclear infrastructure, leaving Tehran with nearly 1,000 pounds of 60% enriched uranium per IAEA assessments. Reports from late March highlighted Trump weighing high-risk special operations or ground seizures of the stockpile amid stalled diplomacy. High-level negotiations continue in Islamabad, with potential for breakthroughs or escalation via sanctions, military action, or IAEA reporting deadlines that could shift acquisition prospects.",
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