US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify. A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met: - The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria. - Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ticker
us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by
Volume
478.9M
1w volume
10.1K
Open interest
109.1M
Liquidity
—
Start
Apr 8, 2026
End
Dec 31, 2026
Status
Closed
Access
Restricted
Created
Apr 8, 2026
Event ID
357807
Slug
us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by
Markets
17
Raw event data
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{
"id": "2413572",
"question": "US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?",
"conditionId": "0x087713ab2905e789c42c3fafdf747512f8d7883b7fab1ac554b703310c09d869",
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"endDate": "2026-10-31T00:00:00Z",
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"description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:\n\n- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.\n\n- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
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"context_description": "**US and Iran reached a 14-point memorandum of understanding in mid-June 2026 to end more than 100 days of conflict, reopen the Strait of Hormuz without tolls, lift the US naval blockade, and begin a 60-day negotiation window on Iran’s nuclear program, sanctions relief, and related issues.** The MOU was virtually signed by President Trump and Iranian officials, with a formal signing ceremony planned for June 19 in Geneva. While this marks the first major diplomatic breakthrough in the 2025–2026 negotiations—mediated by Qatar, Pakistan, and others—US and Iranian interpretations diverge on implementation details such as asset releases and long-term Hormuz management. Trader sentiment reflects progress toward de-escalation but accounts for remaining uncertainty over whether the interim ceasefire evolves into a permanent, verifiable agreement within any specific timeframe.",
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}
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- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Vol 177.4MLiq —End Jun 15, 2026Closed
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Vol 49.0MLiq —End May 31, 2026Closed
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?Vol 14.4MLiq —End Dec 31, 2026Closed
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Vol 12.7MLiq —End Jul 31, 2026Closed
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?Vol 3.7MLiq —End Aug 31, 2026Closed
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?Vol 2.6MLiq —End Oct 31, 2026Closed
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Vol 87.9MLiq —End May 31, 2026Closed
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?Vol 26.1MLiq —End Apr 22, 2026Closed
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?Vol 24.2MLiq —End Apr 30, 2026Closed
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Vol 22.9MLiq —End May 26, 2026Closed
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Vol 19.1MLiq —End Jun 7, 2026Closed
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Vol 18.4MLiq —End May 15, 2026Closed
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?Vol 7.7MLiq —End May 22, 2026Closed
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?Vol 5.1MLiq —End May 11, 2026Closed
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026?Vol 2.8MLiq —End Apr 24, 2026Closed
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?Vol 2.7MLiq —End May 13, 2026Closed
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?Vol 2.2MLiq —End May 8, 2026Closed