Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

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    "context_description": "US intelligence assessments released in mid-March 2026, including the ODNI's Annual Threat Assessment, concluded that China lacks concrete plans for a Taiwan invasion in 2027 or a fixed timeline, favoring coercion over force amid high military and economic risks. This has anchored trader consensus at 90.1% on \"No\" by year-end, reinforced by declining PLA flights into Taiwan's air defense identification zone and internal anticorruption purges disrupting senior military leadership. Recent developments like China's drone deployments near the Taiwan Strait and Taiwan's Pratas Islands fortifications signal ongoing cross-strait pressure but no amphibious buildup, with US deterrence and global distractions like Middle East conflicts further diminishing escalation prospects before December 31.",
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