Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

{
  "id": "34044",
  "ticker": "will-china-invade-taiwan-before-2027",
  "slug": "will-china-invade-taiwan-before-2027",
  "title": "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?",
  "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTerritory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
  "resolutionSource": "",
  "startDate": "2025-07-24T23:37:56.3Z",
  "creationDate": "2025-07-24T23:47:38.785108Z",
  "endDate": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
  "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-invades-taiwan-in-2025-CCSd9dX2mrea.jpg",
  "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-invades-taiwan-in-2025-CCSd9dX2mrea.jpg",
  "active": true,
  "closed": false,
  "archived": false,
  "new": false,
  "featured": false,
  "restricted": true,
  "liquidity": 721260.73795,
  "volume": 39631889.33734497,
  "openInterest": 5768322.212185,
  "createdAt": "2025-07-24T22:43:52.620767Z",
  "updatedAt": "2026-08-12T17:32:22.842286Z",
  "competitive": 0.8237868451538164,
  "volume24hr": 16884.138774000006,
  "volume1wk": 174099.0355919978,
  "volume1mo": 1262084.3118489885,
  "volume1yr": 39586560.39414898,
  "enableOrderBook": true,
  "liquidityClob": 721260.73795,
  "commentCount": 73,
  "markets": [
    {
      "id": "567621",
      "question": "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?",
      "conditionId": "0xd9fb1184af0064e5e34b129f5b79afa5a17b7e32f2953ab05efed82315fee6d4",
      "slug": "will-china-invade-taiwan-before-2027",
      "resolutionSource": "",
      "endDate": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "liquidity": "719573.59229",
      "startDate": "2025-07-24T23:37:56.3Z",
      "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-invades-taiwan-in-2025-CCSd9dX2mrea.jpg",
      "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/china-invades-taiwan-in-2025-CCSd9dX2mrea.jpg",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTerritory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
      "outcomePrices": "[\"0.0375\", \"0.9625\"]",
      "volume": "39631899.69904698",
      "active": true,
      "closed": false,
      "marketMakerAddress": "0x6Bfd2c4c2DE57B4E65C74b376d40E5a2ba3abD01",
      "createdAt": "2025-07-24T22:43:54.006955Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-08-12T17:32:01.068954Z",
      "new": false,
      "featured": false,
      "submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
      "archived": false,
      "resolvedBy": "0x157Ce2d672854c848c9b79C49a8Cc6cc89176a49",
      "restricted": true,
      "groupItemTitle": "",
      "groupItemThreshold": "0",
      "questionID": "0xe72b35a076bbf5faadce08a003836f45214d4b8443a35cddbf30457d064a464c",
      "enableOrderBook": true,
      "orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.001,
      "orderMinSize": 5,
      "volumeNum": 39631899.69904698,
      "liquidityNum": 719573.59229,
      "endDateIso": "2026-12-31",
      "startDateIso": "2025-07-24",
      "hasReviewedDates": true,
      "volume24hr": 16884.154142999996,
      "volume1wk": 174085.49729399756,
      "volume1mo": 1262039.6371749695,
      "volume1yr": 39586570.75585099,
      "clobTokenIds": "[\"94559586571241563470235664821564670251180951772614764383113614156422396181162\", \"90772332434487149264114862115632028379978765245278600275169585501290867536237\"]",
      "positionIds": [
        "737627543131928977073597406197629922241678896546839963013331152486512197632",
        "737627543131928977073597406197629922241678896546839963013331152486512197633"
      ],
      "comboStatus": "pending",
      "umaBond": "500",
      "umaReward": "5",
      "volume24hrClob": 16884.154142999996,
      "volume1wkClob": 174085.49729399756,
      "volume1moClob": 1262039.6371749695,
      "volume1yrClob": 39586570.75585099,
      "volumeClob": 39631899.69904698,
      "liquidityClob": 719573.59229,
      "customLiveness": 0,
      "acceptingOrders": true,
      "negRisk": false,
      "negRiskRequestID": "",
      "ready": false,
      "funded": false,
      "acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2025-07-24T23:37:34Z",
      "cyom": false,
      "competitive": 0.8237868451538164,
      "pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
      "approved": true,
      "clobRewards": [
        {
          "id": "303428",
          "conditionId": "0xd9fb1184af0064e5e34b129f5b79afa5a17b7e32f2953ab05efed82315fee6d4",
          "assetAddress": "0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174",
          "rewardsAmount": 0,
          "rewardsDailyRate": 50,
          "startDate": "2026-04-30",
          "endDate": "2500-12-31"
        }
      ],
      "rewardsMinSize": 200,
      "rewardsMaxSpread": 3.5,
      "spread": 0.001,
      "oneDayPriceChange": 0.001,
      "oneWeekPriceChange": -0.001,
      "oneMonthPriceChange": -0.001,
      "oneYearPriceChange": -0.1875,
      "lastTradePrice": 0.038,
      "bestBid": 0.037,
      "bestAsk": 0.038,
      "automaticallyActive": true,
      "clearBookOnStart": true,
      "manualActivation": false,
      "negRiskOther": false,
      "umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
      "pendingDeployment": false,
      "deploying": false,
      "deployingTimestamp": "2025-07-24T23:37:05.021428Z",
      "rfqEnabled": false,
      "holdingRewardsEnabled": true,
      "feesEnabled": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false,
      "feeType": null,
      "version": "v1"
    }
  ],
  "series": [
    {
      "id": "10171",
      "ticker": "china-invade-taiwan",
      "slug": "china-invade-taiwan",
      "title": "China invade Taiwan",
      "seriesType": "single",
      "recurrence": "monthly",
      "image": "",
      "icon": "",
      "active": true,
      "closed": false,
      "archived": false,
      "featured": false,
      "restricted": true,
      "createdAt": "2025-07-24T22:44:22.501114Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-08-12T17:32:49.209511Z",
      "volume24hr": 34675.298630000005,
      "volume": 44601723.770968966,
      "liquidity": 1204665.7657,
      "commentCount": 789,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    }
  ],
  "tags": [
    {
      "id": "2",
      "label": "Politics",
      "slug": "politics",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-10-25 18:55:50.674+00",
      "updatedBy": 13,
      "createdAt": "2023-10-25T18:55:50.681Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-04-17T20:39:54.201881Z",
      "forceHide": true,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "101970",
      "label": "World",
      "slug": "world",
      "forceShow": false,
      "createdAt": "2025-03-19T23:36:08.498099Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-04-17T17:18:59.135061Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "100265",
      "label": "Geopolitics",
      "slug": "geopolitics",
      "forceShow": true,
      "createdAt": "2024-06-12T20:13:03.615956Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-04-17T20:49:04.209055Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "101794",
      "label": "Foreign Policy",
      "slug": "foreign-policy",
      "forceShow": false,
      "createdAt": "2025-02-06T17:24:29.604203Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-04-17T20:15:51.294685Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "303",
      "label": "China",
      "slug": "china",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:52:11.147+00",
      "createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:52:11.155Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-04-17T20:49:04.250426Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "102458",
      "label": "Earn 4%",
      "slug": "earn-4",
      "forceShow": false,
      "createdAt": "2025-08-01T13:31:11.928744Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-04-17T21:09:22.871226Z",
      "isCarousel": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    }
  ],
  "cyom": false,
  "showAllOutcomes": true,
  "showMarketImages": true,
  "enableNegRisk": false,
  "automaticallyActive": true,
  "seriesSlug": "china-invade-taiwan",
  "negRiskAugmented": false,
  "cumulativeMarkets": false,
  "pendingDeployment": false,
  "deploying": false,
  "requiresTranslation": false,
  "eventMetadata": {
    "context_description": "Traders' near-certain 96.3% probability on no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2026, stems primarily from the absence of detectable large-scale naval, amphibious, or logistics mobilization in the remaining months, as confirmed by ongoing assessments of PLA activity. Recent routine live-fire drills in the Taiwan Strait and Taiwan's Han Kuang exercises reflect standard gray-zone coercion and defensive preparations rather than imminent offensive signals. US intelligence continues to assess that Beijing favors political pressure, exercises, and economic leverage over direct assault, a view reinforced by recent PLA leadership disruptions and the substantial risks of US intervention. While this skin-in-the-game consensus holds firm, low-probability shifts could still arise from sudden escalation, major miscalculation, or unforeseen leadership decisions before year-end.",
    "context_requires_regen": false,
    "context_updated_at": "2026-08-12T16:46:15.780Z"
  },
  "version": "v1"
}