Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

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    "context_description": "U.S. intelligence's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, released mid-month, concluded China likely will not attempt a Taiwan invasion in 2027, preferring unification through non-military means amid ongoing PLA corruption purges and modernization hurdles, anchoring trader consensus at 90% odds against invasion by year-end. Recent developments, including routine PLA aircraft incursions and AI swarm tech emphasis per April ISW updates, reflect sustained gray-zone pressure rather than invasion signals, while Taiwan's opposition parties block key defense acquisitions and extend conscription amid U.S. deterrence commitments. No observable amphibious buildup or mobilization escalates risks, though US distractions like Middle East conflicts prompt vigilance; late-breaking diplomatic shifts or Xi Jinping directives could still alter dynamics before December 31.",
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