
Prediction market · Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ticker
ecb-rate-hike-in-2026
Volume
165.5K
Open interest
35.0K
Liquidity
—
Start
Dec 23, 2025
End
Dec 31, 2026
Status
Closed
Access
Restricted
Created
Dec 23, 2025
Event ID
118455
Slug
ecb-rate-hike-in-2026
Markets
1
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"id": "118455",
"ticker": "ecb-rate-hike-in-2026",
"slug": "ecb-rate-hike-in-2026",
"title": "ECB rate hike in 2026?",
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"endDate": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
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"id": "999095",
"question": "ECB rate hike in 2026?",
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"description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market may not resolve to \"No\" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
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"updatedAt": "2026-06-12T14:39:33.365259Z",
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"tags": [
{
"id": "101800",
"label": "Economic Policy",
"slug": "economic-policy",
"forceShow": false,
"createdAt": "2025-02-06T18:05:50.554703Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-04-17T20:34:30.088167Z",
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"publishedAt": "2024-02-27 19:09:27.069+00",
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"updatedAt": "2026-04-17T20:40:55.167153Z",
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{
"id": "100448",
"label": "ECB",
"slug": "ecb",
"createdAt": "2024-09-12T17:26:29.894133Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-04-17T20:44:33.641501Z",
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{
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"forceShow": false,
"createdAt": "2024-08-05T05:34:54.235643Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-04-17T20:29:06.948273Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "103176",
"label": "Global Rates",
"slug": "Global-Rates",
"forceShow": false,
"createdAt": "2026-01-16T22:01:30.899064Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-04-17T17:21:01.178149Z",
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},
{
"id": "101250",
"label": "Macro Single",
"slug": "macro-single",
"forceShow": false,
"createdAt": "2024-11-13T01:35:57.395432Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-04-17T20:15:31.351202Z",
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"closedTime": "2026-06-11T14:26:51Z",
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"eventMetadata": {
"context_description": "Recent euro-area inflation acceleration, driven by elevated energy prices amid Middle East geopolitical tensions, has shifted ECB policy signals toward tightening after holding the deposit facility rate at 2.00% in April. Officials including Bundesbank President Nagel have highlighted risks of persistent core readings and second-round effects, prompting markets to fully price a June 25-basis-point hike and additional moves later in 2026. Trader consensus at 99.9% for at least one rate increase reflects this data-dependent stance and upward revisions to inflation projections. A rapid de-escalation in energy markets or sustained disinflation could still reduce the number or timing of hikes within the year.",
"context_requires_regen": true,
"context_updated_at": "2026-06-11T14:06:22.417Z"
}
}Tickers mapped from the event's catalyst themes.
JPMorgan Chase & Co.
Rates and inflation affect discount rates, loan demand, credit quality, consumer spending, housing, and long-duration equity multiples.
Bank of America Corporation
Rates and inflation affect discount rates, loan demand, credit quality, consumer spending, housing, and long-duration equity multiples.
Wells Fargo & Company
Rates and inflation affect discount rates, loan demand, credit quality, consumer spending, housing, and long-duration equity multiples.
Citigroup Inc.
Rates and inflation affect discount rates, loan demand, credit quality, consumer spending, housing, and long-duration equity multiples.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
Rates and inflation affect discount rates, loan demand, credit quality, consumer spending, housing, and long-duration equity multiples.
Morgan Stanley
Rates and inflation affect discount rates, loan demand, credit quality, consumer spending, housing, and long-duration equity multiples.
Charles Schwab Corporation
Rates and inflation affect discount rates, loan demand, credit quality, consumer spending, housing, and long-duration equity multiples.
Capital One
Rates and inflation affect discount rates, loan demand, credit quality, consumer spending, housing, and long-duration equity multiples.
American Express Company
Rates and inflation affect discount rates, loan demand, credit quality, consumer spending, housing, and long-duration equity multiples.
Rates and inflation affect discount rates, loan demand, credit quality, consumer spending, housing, and long-duration equity multiples.
Synchrony Financial
Rates and inflation affect discount rates, loan demand, credit quality, consumer spending, housing, and long-duration equity multiples.
CME Group
Financials are tied to net interest margins, deposit costs, credit losses, capital markets activity, and recession risk.
Cboe Global Markets
Financials are tied to net interest margins, deposit costs, credit losses, capital markets activity, and recession risk.
Intercontinental Exchange
Financials are tied to net interest margins, deposit costs, credit losses, capital markets activity, and recession risk.