Turn a market question into a researched map of what could happen, why, and what to watch next.
Milestones, decisions, and complete paths to each outcome.
Change assumptions and see which ones move the result.
Sources, counterarguments, market context, and research gaps.
Go a little deeper
The idea, in plain English
Each step changes what can happen next. Knowing the sequence makes a forecast easier to understand.
News changes what people think will happen. More hope does not automatically mean a better idea.
A test reveals this project's quality. In the figure, this is separate from the wider uncertainty the news is about.
The newcomer develops the project only if its quality clears a threshold. Otherwise, it goes no further.
An established player may buy the idea, develop it, or shelve it. Without a deal, the newcomer may launch independently.
Imagine a child invents a new lemonade recipe. A big stand nearby can help sell it—or worry that the new drink will take its customers.
Protect existing sales
A buyer may acquire the recipe and shelve it to prevent competition. A sufficiently valuable project can still be developed.
Bring the idea to customers
When development is attractive, a good enough recipe can be bought and launched. Other recipes stay independent.
Leave the newcomer independent
When buying is not worthwhile, the child develops the qualifying recipe and opens their own stand.
These reconstruct the figure’s pre-emption, commercialization, and no-acquisition regimes. Its dashed lines describe different incentive conditions; they are not random choices. “Market for technology” means transferring a project to a buyer that develops it.
If a milestone has a 60% chance, and success has a 40% chance given that milestone happened, the chance of both is 24%. The second number already accounts for the first step.
The figure combines belief updating, project quality, entry thresholds, and acquisition incentives. Its quality draw is independent of the underlying state, and its offer depends on beliefs and project quality. The economic background includes Cunningham, Ederer, and Ma’s research on killer acquisitions. That research does not establish probabilities for an arbitrary company or topic. The exact paper behind the attached figure remains unverified, so its undefined symbols are not assigned invented meanings here. The forecast tool adapts the staged reasoning; it does not claim to estimate that paper’s formal model.