Fed rate hike in 2026?

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    "context_description": "Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 81.5% implied probability against a Fed funds rate hike in 2026, driven by the Federal Reserve's March 18 FOMC decision to hold the target range steady at 3.5%-3.75% for a second meeting, with the dot plot median projecting a single 25 basis point cut by year-end amid stable 2.4% February CPI inflation. Recent March jobs data added 178,000 nonfarm payrolls—beating low expectations—while unemployment edged to 4.3%, signaling a resilient yet cooling labor market not warranting tightening. Geopolitical tensions from the Iran conflict have raised oil-driven inflation fears, prompting some analysts like Wells Fargo to scrap 2026 cut forecasts, but skin-in-the-game traders maintain a dovish bias. Key catalysts include April 10 CPI release and the April 29-30 FOMC meeting.",
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