Fed rate hike in 2026?

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    "context_description": "Polymarket traders assign an 81.5% implied probability to no Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, driven by persistent disinflation and a labor market showing resilience without overheating, with the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%. The March 17-18 FOMC statement held policy unchanged, its dot plot projecting one 25-basis-point cut amid February CPI holding at 2.4% year-over-year—near the 2% target. March nonfarm payrolls beat expectations with a 178,000 gain and unemployment dipping to 4.3%, reinforcing a soft landing narrative despite oil price spikes from geopolitical tensions briefly lifting CME FedWatch hike odds toward 45-47% for later meetings. Upcoming March CPI on April 10 and the April 29-30 FOMC loom as pivotal catalysts for sentiment shifts.",
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