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Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by March 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Ticker
kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-march-31
Volume
24.8M
24h volume
1.3M
1w volume
8.5M
Open interest
4.8M
Liquidity
1.1M
Liquidity CLOB
1.1M
Start
Mar 14, 2026
End
Mar 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Mar 14, 2026
Event ID
267102
Slug
kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-march-31
Markets
5
Raw event data
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"title": "Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?",
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"context_description": "US airstrikes hit military targets on Kharg Island—handling 90% of Iran's crude oil exports—on April 7 amid escalating US-Iran tensions over Strait of Hormuz blockades, but oil facilities sustained no damage and operations continue uninterrupted. Tehran reports the strategic hub firmly under Iranian control, bolstered by added air defenses and personnel, countering threats of ground seizure signaled by President Trump to pressure diplomatic concessions. No US troops have deployed for takeover, with recent maritime intelligence confirming intact Iranian oversight as of April 12. Traders eye upcoming port blockades or Hormuz negotiations as pivotal escalation risks before resolution dates.",
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}- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Vol 658.8KLiq 113.9KEnd Jun 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?Vol 992.4KLiq 167.5KEnd May 31, 2026OpenOrder book
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?Vol 7.1MLiq 369.9KEnd Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?Vol 8.2MLiq 417.0KEnd Apr 15, 2026OpenOrder book
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?Vol 7.8MLiq —End Mar 31, 2026Closed