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Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by March 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Ticker
kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-march-31
Volume
13.2M
24h volume
599.1K
1w volume
3.4M
Open interest
2.3M
Liquidity
631.1K
Liquidity CLOB
631.1K
Start
Mar 14, 2026
End
Mar 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Mar 14, 2026
Event ID
267102
Slug
kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-march-31
Markets
5
Raw event data
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"title": "Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?",
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"context_description": "Kharg Island, Iran's primary oil export terminal handling nearly 90% of its crude shipments in the Persian Gulf, remains fully under Iranian armed forces control despite recent U.S. military actions. On March 13, U.S. airstrikes targeted military sites on the island—sparing oil infrastructure—prompting Iranian media to release footage showing complete security and uninterrupted exports. President Trump has threatened ground troop deployment to seize the facility and compel reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, but experts highlight risks from nearby mainland drone and missile defenses. Iran recently rejected U.S. ultimatums, reinforced fortifications, and increased shipments, sustaining trader focus on potential invasion decisions amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict.",
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}- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Vol 223.3KLiq 56.9KEnd Jun 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?Vol 238.9KLiq 59.0KEnd May 31, 2026OpenOrder book
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?Vol 3.3MLiq 233.8KEnd Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?Vol 1.7MLiq 288.9KEnd Apr 15, 2026OpenOrder book
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?Vol 7.8MLiq —End Mar 31, 2026Closed