Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by March 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.

Ticker

kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-march-31

Volume

44.4M

24h volume

273.1K

1w volume

1.7M

Open interest

3.5M

Liquidity

489.1K

Liquidity CLOB

489.1K

Start

Mar 14, 2026

End

Mar 31, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Mar 14, 2026

Event ID

267102

Slug

kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-march-31

Markets

Tags

Khamenei Iran Regime Kharg Island Iran Mojtaba Khamenei Geopolitics Strait of Hormuz

Raw event data

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  "title": "Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?",
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      "seriesColor": "",
      "showGmpSeries": false,
      "showGmpOutcome": false,
      "manualActivation": false,
      "negRiskOther": false,
      "umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
      "pendingDeployment": false,
      "deploying": false,
      "deployingTimestamp": "2026-03-24T20:13:30.087581Z",
      "rfqEnabled": false,
      "holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
      "feesEnabled": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false,
      "feeType": null
    },
    {
      "id": "1797309",
      "question": "Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?",
      "conditionId": "0x10d4b55e87cd8df815a88de7a8eccdff77418d361285a540fbdc6505bb99a4a2",
      "slug": "kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-april-15",
      "resolutionSource": "",
      "endDate": "2026-04-15T23:55:00Z",
      "startDate": "2026-03-30T22:31:53.014159Z",
      "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-march-31-j0_GAJMNgJ_G.jpg",
      "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-march-31-j0_GAJMNgJ_G.jpg",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by April 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\n“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.\n\nTemporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.\n\nAn announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.\n\nIf control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.\n\nIf control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.",
      "outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
      "outcomePrices": "[\"0\", \"1\"]",
      "volume": "8447703.489108935",
      "active": true,
      "closed": true,
      "marketMakerAddress": "",
      "createdAt": "2026-03-30T22:28:59.619505Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-04-17T22:05:58.785476Z",
      "closedTime": "2026-04-16 06:50:18+00",
      "new": false,
      "featured": false,
      "submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
      "archived": false,
      "resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
      "restricted": true,
      "groupItemTitle": "April 15",
      "groupItemThreshold": "1",
      "questionID": "0x1982b397897e82184e7f1019bf1848065bb3203835b18ff097682a705c3bede1",
      "umaEndDate": "2026-04-16T06:50:18Z",
      "enableOrderBook": true,
      "orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.001,
      "orderMinSize": 5,
      "umaResolutionStatus": "resolved",
      "volumeNum": 8447703.489108935,
      "endDateIso": "2026-04-15",
      "startDateIso": "2026-03-30",
      "hasReviewedDates": true,
      "clobTokenIds": "[\"40005847108050798416151053441842320707139529801249097438698453878815195017416\", \"67423939864971962920209126258922721130282429613087261619642304277345981406057\"]",
      "umaBond": "500",
      "umaReward": "5",
      "volumeClob": 8447703.489108935,
      "customLiveness": 0,
      "acceptingOrders": false,
      "negRisk": false,
      "negRiskRequestID": "",
      "ready": false,
      "funded": false,
      "acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-03-30T22:30:47Z",
      "cyom": false,
      "pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
      "approved": true,
      "rewardsMinSize": 200,
      "rewardsMaxSpread": 3.5,
      "spread": 0.001,
      "automaticallyResolved": true,
      "oneWeekPriceChange": -0.032,
      "lastTradePrice": 0.002,
      "bestAsk": 0.001,
      "automaticallyActive": true,
      "clearBookOnStart": true,
      "seriesColor": "",
      "showGmpSeries": false,
      "showGmpOutcome": false,
      "manualActivation": false,
      "negRiskOther": false,
      "umaResolutionStatuses": "[\"proposed\"]",
      "pendingDeployment": false,
      "deploying": false,
      "deployingTimestamp": "2026-03-30T22:29:33.834595Z",
      "rfqEnabled": false,
      "holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
      "feesEnabled": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false,
      "feeType": null
    }
  ],
  "tags": [
    {
      "id": "102304",
      "label": "Khamenei",
      "slug": "khamenei",
      "forceShow": false,
      "createdAt": "2025-06-23T18:41:15.452041Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-04-17T21:07:43.263757Z",
      "isCarousel": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "104005",
      "label": "Iran Regime",
      "slug": "iranian-leadership-regime",
      "forceShow": false,
      "createdAt": "2026-03-02T19:48:14.400431Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-04-17T20:49:44.287128Z",
      "isCarousel": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "104230",
      "label": "Kharg Island",
      "slug": "kharg-island",
      "createdAt": "2026-03-14T00:02:09.12108Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-04-17T20:53:51.729105Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "78",
      "label": "Iran",
      "slug": "iran",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:16:51.647+00",
      "updatedBy": 15,
      "createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:16:51.667Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-04-17T20:19:53.890971Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "104127",
      "label": "Mojtaba Khamenei",
      "slug": "mojtaba-khamenei",
      "createdAt": "2026-03-09T15:52:22.802541Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-04-17T21:11:26.140734Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "100265",
      "label": "Geopolitics",
      "slug": "geopolitics",
      "forceShow": true,
      "createdAt": "2024-06-12T20:13:03.615956Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-04-17T20:49:04.209055Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "262",
      "label": "Strait of Hormuz",
      "slug": "strait-of-hormuz",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:45:34.694+00",
      "createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:45:34.718Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-04-15T21:01:56.57983Z",
      "isCarousel": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    }
  ],
  "cyom": false,
  "showAllOutcomes": true,
  "showMarketImages": false,
  "enableNegRisk": false,
  "automaticallyActive": true,
  "gmpChartMode": "default",
  "negRiskAugmented": false,
  "estimateValue": false,
  "cumulativeMarkets": false,
  "pendingDeployment": false,
  "deploying": false,
  "requiresTranslation": false,
  "eventMetadata": {
    "context_description": "US military operations in the 2026 Iran conflict have included precision strikes on military installations and air defenses at Kharg Island in March and April, while explicitly avoiding damage to oil export terminals that handle the majority of Iranian crude shipments. Iran has responded by deploying additional personnel, surface-to-air systems, and coastal defenses to the island, which remains under full Tehran control amid broader efforts to maintain influence over the Strait of Hormuz. Ongoing diplomatic negotiations and US statements referencing potential occupation or blockade options as leverage have shaped trader assessments, with any shift in control hinging on future ground operations or major escalations before mid-year deadlines.",
    "context_requires_regen": false,
    "context_updated_at": "2026-05-22T00:30:55.823Z"
  }
}

Tickers mapped from the event's catalyst themes.