Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by March 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.

Ticker

kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-march-31

Volume

13.7M

24h volume

607.1K

1w volume

3.8M

Open interest

2.4M

Liquidity

634.5K

Liquidity CLOB

634.5K

Start

Mar 14, 2026

End

Mar 31, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Mar 14, 2026

Event ID

267102

Slug

kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-march-31

Markets

5

Tags

KhameneiIran RegimeKharg IslandIranMojtaba KhameneiPoliticsGeopoliticsStrait of Hormuz
Raw event data
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  "title": "Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?",
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