Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by March 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Ticker
kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-march-31
Volume
71.5M
24h volume
65.0K
1w volume
552.9K
Open interest
1.8M
Liquidity
607.6K
Liquidity CLOB
607.6K
Start
Mar 14, 2026
End
Jan 1, 2027
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Mar 14, 2026
Event ID
267102
Slug
kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-march-31
Markets
10
Tags
Raw event data
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"title": "Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?",
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"description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by April 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\n“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.\n\nTemporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.\n\nAn announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.\n\nIf control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.\n\nIf control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.",
"outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
"outcomePrices": "[\"0\", \"1\"]",
"volume": "8447703.489108935",
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"createdAt": "2026-03-30T22:28:59.619505Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-08-21T18:19:13.090568Z",
"closedTime": "2026-04-16 06:50:18+00",
"new": false,
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"submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
"archived": false,
"resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
"restricted": true,
"groupItemTitle": "April 15",
"groupItemThreshold": "5",
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"umaEndDate": "2026-04-16T06:50:18Z",
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"endDateIso": "2026-04-16",
"startDateIso": "2026-03-30",
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"comboStatus": "disabled",
"umaBond": "500",
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"customLiveness": 0,
"acceptingOrders": false,
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"acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-03-30T22:30:47Z",
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"rewardsMinSize": 200,
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"oneWeekPriceChange": -0.032,
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"deployingTimestamp": "2026-03-30T22:29:33.834595Z",
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],
"tags": [
{
"id": "104005",
"label": "Iran Regime",
"slug": "iranian-leadership-regime",
"forceShow": false,
"createdAt": "2026-03-02T19:48:14.400431Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-04-17T20:49:44.287128Z",
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{
"id": "78",
"label": "Iran",
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"publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:16:51.647+00",
"updatedBy": 15,
"createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:16:51.667Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-04-17T20:19:53.890971Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "104127",
"label": "Mojtaba Khamenei",
"slug": "mojtaba-khamenei",
"createdAt": "2026-03-09T15:52:22.802541Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-04-17T21:11:26.140734Z",
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},
{
"id": "102304",
"label": "Khamenei",
"slug": "khamenei",
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"createdAt": "2025-06-23T18:41:15.452041Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-04-17T21:07:43.263757Z",
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},
{
"id": "100265",
"label": "Geopolitics",
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"createdAt": "2024-06-12T20:13:03.615956Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-04-17T20:49:04.209055Z",
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},
{
"id": "104230",
"label": "Kharg Island",
"slug": "kharg-island",
"createdAt": "2026-03-14T00:02:09.12108Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-04-17T20:53:51.729105Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "262",
"label": "Strait of Hormuz",
"slug": "strait-of-hormuz",
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"publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:45:34.694+00",
"createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:45:34.718Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-04-15T21:01:56.57983Z",
"isCarousel": false,
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},
{
"id": "104039",
"label": "U.S. x Iran",
"slug": "trump-iran",
"forceShow": false,
"createdAt": "2026-03-02T20:09:15.156731Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-04-17T20:30:08.870525Z",
"isCarousel": false,
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "104010",
"label": "Iran Ceasefire",
"slug": "diplomacy-ceasefire",
"forceShow": false,
"createdAt": "2026-03-02T19:58:33.637952Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-04-17T20:18:43.047208Z",
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}
],
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"eventMetadata": {
"context_description": "US strikes on military targets at Kharg Island in March and April 2026, combined with repeated threats by President Trump to seize or blockade the facility that handles roughly 90 percent of Iran’s crude exports, have shaped trader views on control. Iran maintains primary governmental and military authority, as evidenced by ongoing terminal operations and partial resumption of tanker loadings in August despite Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Iranian forces have reinforced defenses with mines and air systems, while US actions have focused on military assets without establishing occupation. Low market-implied probabilities for loss of control by late August or September reflect the high barriers to forcible seizure, risks of escalation involving ballistic missiles and naval forces, and absence of confirmed shifts in authority. Any resolution would hinge on verifiable changes in primary control rather than strikes or temporary disruptions.",
"context_requires_regen": false,
"context_updated_at": "2026-08-25T06:31:30.058Z"
},
"version": "v1"
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