Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

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    "context_description": "Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 62.5% implied probability to Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic—measured by IMF Portwatch's 7-day moving average of transit calls reaching 60 or higher—returning to that benchmark by June 30, reflecting cautious optimism amid the Iran conflict that slashed volumes from pre-war norms of over 130 daily vessels to just 5 transits in the past 24 hours. Recent drivers include Iran's April 17 reopening announcement during a Lebanon ceasefire, which spurred a brief surge but reversed amid U.S. vessel seizures and peace talk cancellations, sustaining extreme war risk insurance premiums at 1% (6.7x normal) and stranding 280 ships. With 800K DWT daily throughput versus 10.3M average, economic pressures on Asian importers bolster recovery hopes, though persistent U.S. blockade tensions cap upside; key catalysts include U.S.-Qatar mediated diplomacy and insurance normalization.",
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