Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Ticker

strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-june

Volume

420.2K

24h volume

92.8K

1w volume

314.8K

Open interest

197.1K

Liquidity

120.7K

Liquidity CLOB

120.7K

Start

Apr 13, 2026

End

Jun 30, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Apr 13, 2026

Event ID

375597

Slug

strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-june

Markets

1

Tags

Macro GeopoliticsHormuzOilU.S. x IranshipsStrait of HormuzEconomytransitIranGeopolitics
Raw event data
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  "title": "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?",
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    "context_description": "Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 62.5% implied probability to Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic—measured by IMF Portwatch's 7-day moving average of transit calls reaching 60 or higher—returning to that benchmark by June 30, reflecting cautious optimism amid the Iran conflict that slashed volumes from pre-war norms of over 130 daily vessels to just 5 transits in the past 24 hours. Recent drivers include Iran's April 17 reopening announcement during a Lebanon ceasefire, which spurred a brief surge but reversed amid U.S. vessel seizures and peace talk cancellations, sustaining extreme war risk insurance premiums at 1% (6.7x normal) and stranding 280 ships. With 800K DWT daily throughput versus 10.3M average, economic pressures on Asian importers bolster recovery hopes, though persistent U.S. blockade tensions cap upside; key catalysts include U.S.-Qatar mediated diplomacy and insurance normalization.",
    "context_requires_regen": false,
    "context_updated_at": "2026-04-25T02:33:32.459Z"
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