
Prediction market · Polymarket
If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
Ticker
will-the-doge-1-lunar-mission-launch-before-2027
Volume
758.4K
24h volume
3.7K
1w volume
49.4K
Open interest
260.0K
Liquidity
34.1K
Liquidity CLOB
34.1K
Start
Jan 7, 2026
End
Dec 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Jan 7, 2026
Event ID
149793
Slug
will-the-doge-1-lunar-mission-launch-before-2027
Markets
1
{
"id": "149793",
"ticker": "will-the-doge-1-lunar-mission-launch-before-2027",
"slug": "will-the-doge-1-lunar-mission-launch-before-2027",
"title": "Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch before 2027?",
"description": "If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.\n\nAny subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.",
"resolutionSource": "",
"startDate": "2026-01-07T23:11:01.061881Z",
"creationDate": "2026-01-07T23:11:01.061875Z",
"endDate": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-the-doge-1-lunar-mission-launch-before-2027-wrmn3EafBT0g.jpg",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-the-doge-1-lunar-mission-launch-before-2027-wrmn3EafBT0g.jpg",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"archived": false,
"new": false,
"featured": false,
"restricted": true,
"liquidity": 34052.16931,
"volume": 758409.3512379997,
"openInterest": 259953.587253,
"createdAt": "2026-01-07T20:29:56.712081Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-04-12T23:00:34.661559Z",
"competitive": 0.8353269803932051,
"volume24hr": 3733.593827,
"volume1wk": 49432.973678,
"volume1mo": 114595.76121399998,
"volume1yr": 758409.3512379996,
"enableOrderBook": true,
"liquidityClob": 34052.16931,
"commentCount": 32,
"markets": [
{
"id": "1131150",
"question": "Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch before 2027?",
"conditionId": "0x1f45664dbc61a1044feaa1fcb773bda82e0a936da8cdb2cf3c06125c0f2a4826",
"slug": "will-the-doge-1-lunar-mission-launch-before-2027",
"resolutionSource": "",
"endDate": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
"liquidity": "34448.55831",
"startDate": "2026-01-07T23:09:00.166576Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-the-doge-1-lunar-mission-launch-before-2027-wrmn3EafBT0g.jpg",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-the-doge-1-lunar-mission-launch-before-2027-wrmn3EafBT0g.jpg",
"description": "If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.\n\nAny subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.",
"outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
"outcomePrices": "[\"0.056\", \"0.944\"]",
"volume": "758409.3512379997",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"marketMakerAddress": "",
"createdAt": "2026-01-07T20:29:57.457349Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-04-12T22:59:31.108872Z",
"new": false,
"featured": false,
"submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
"archived": false,
"resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
"restricted": true,
"groupItemTitle": "",
"groupItemThreshold": "0",
"questionID": "0x1476b588edb5d0ea7416d325da95d928bf7fd08f93589c53acd637e0d12af76b",
"enableOrderBook": true,
"orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.001,
"orderMinSize": 5,
"volumeNum": 758409.3512379997,
"liquidityNum": 34448.55831,
"endDateIso": "2026-12-31",
"startDateIso": "2026-01-07",
"hasReviewedDates": true,
"volume24hr": 3733.593827,
"volume1wk": 49432.973678,
"volume1mo": 114595.76121399998,
"volume1yr": 758409.3512379996,
"clobTokenIds": "[\"24532244971331469081136591021496807808109838335579455403786547950699236092433\", \"20115696851573188378191998818216679952228452617151380017697522622149021390888\"]",
"umaBond": "500",
"umaReward": "5",
"volume24hrClob": 3733.593827,
"volume1wkClob": 49432.973678,
"volume1moClob": 114595.76121399998,
"volume1yrClob": 758409.3512379996,
"volumeClob": 758409.3512379997,
"liquidityClob": 34448.55831,
"customLiveness": 0,
"acceptingOrders": true,
"negRisk": false,
"negRiskRequestID": "",
"ready": false,
"funded": false,
"acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-01-07T23:08:37Z",
"cyom": false,
"competitive": 0.8353269803932051,
"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
"approved": true,
"clobRewards": [
{
"id": "54019",
"conditionId": "0x1f45664dbc61a1044feaa1fcb773bda82e0a936da8cdb2cf3c06125c0f2a4826",
"assetAddress": "0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174",
"rewardsAmount": 0,
"rewardsDailyRate": 1,
"startDate": "2026-01-08",
"endDate": "2500-12-31"
}
],
"rewardsMinSize": 20,
"rewardsMaxSpread": 3.5,
"spread": 0.01,
"oneDayPriceChange": 0.022,
"oneWeekPriceChange": -0.0005,
"oneMonthPriceChange": 0.034,
"lastTradePrice": 0.047,
"bestBid": 0.051,
"bestAsk": 0.061,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"clearBookOnStart": true,
"manualActivation": false,
"negRiskOther": false,
"umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"deployingTimestamp": "2026-01-07T23:07:51.015148Z",
"rfqEnabled": false,
"holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
"feesEnabled": false,
"requiresTranslation": false,
"feeType": null
}
],
"tags": [
{
"id": "1325",
"label": "Space",
"slug": "space",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2024-02-14 20:38:45.407+00",
"createdAt": "2024-02-14T20:38:45.417Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:34:38.75615Z",
"isCarousel": false,
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "596",
"label": "Culture",
"slug": "pop-culture",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2023-11-29 18:40:13.013+00",
"createdAt": "2023-11-29T18:40:14.63Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:35:06.806106Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "63",
"label": "SpaceX",
"slug": "spacex",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:15:23.311+00",
"createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:15:23.316Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:33:38.558326Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "74",
"label": "Science",
"slug": "science",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:16:20.623+00",
"updatedBy": 13,
"createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:16:20.826Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:33:38.571503Z",
"forceHide": true,
"requiresTranslation": false
}
],
"cyom": false,
"showAllOutcomes": true,
"showMarketImages": true,
"enableNegRisk": false,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"negRiskAugmented": false,
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"requiresTranslation": false,
"eventMetadata": {
"context_description": "Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors \"No\" at 94.4% implied probability for the Doge-1 lunar CubeSat mission launching before 2027, driven by a five-year history of repeated delays since its 2021 announcement as a SpaceX Falcon 9 rideshare payload originally tied to Intuitive Machines' IM-1 mission. Despite a tentative September 2026 target cited on the official site and Wikipedia, no firm slot appears on SpaceX's public launch manifest, and Elon Musk's February 2026 comment of \"maybe next year\" for sending Dogecoin to the moon signals likely slippage into 2027 amid payload integration challenges and busy Falcon 9 schedules. Upcoming SpaceX updates or a confirmed rideshare could shift odds, but historical precedent and current mission readiness uncertainties reinforce trader skepticism.",
"context_requires_regen": true,
"context_updated_at": "2026-04-12T22:48:47.863Z"
}
}