Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch before 2027?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.

Ticker

will-the-doge-1-lunar-mission-launch-before-2027

Volume

743.5K

24h volume

34.5K

1w volume

37.6K

Open interest

254.7K

Liquidity

15.6K

Liquidity CLOB

15.6K

Start

Jan 7, 2026

End

Dec 31, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Jan 7, 2026

Event ID

149793

Slug

will-the-doge-1-lunar-mission-launch-before-2027

Markets

1

Raw event data
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  "title": "Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch before 2027?",
  "description": "If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.\n\nAny subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.",
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    "context_description": "Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 94.5% implied probability against the DOGE-1 CubeSat mission launching before 2027, driven by over four years of repeated delays since its 2021 announcement for a 2022 Falcon 9 rideshare liftoff, with no firm slot on SpaceX's crowded manifest as of April 2026. Geometric Energy Corporation's official site targets September 13, 2026—aligning with optimal lunar transfer windows—but lacks SpaceX confirmation, hardware integration proof, or recent testing milestones, amid prioritization of high-profile Starship and Artemis missions. Historical secondary payload slips underscore this uncertainty; a shift could occur via SpaceX's next rideshare announcement or verified readiness updates before year-end.",
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