
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch before 2027?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
Ticker
will-the-doge-1-lunar-mission-launch-before-2027
Volume
743.5K
24h volume
34.5K
1w volume
37.6K
Open interest
254.7K
Liquidity
15.6K
Liquidity CLOB
15.6K
Start
Jan 7, 2026
End
Dec 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Jan 7, 2026
Event ID
149793
Slug
will-the-doge-1-lunar-mission-launch-before-2027
Markets
1
Raw event data
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"context_description": "Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 94.5% implied probability against the DOGE-1 CubeSat mission launching before 2027, driven by over four years of repeated delays since its 2021 announcement for a 2022 Falcon 9 rideshare liftoff, with no firm slot on SpaceX's crowded manifest as of April 2026. Geometric Energy Corporation's official site targets September 13, 2026—aligning with optimal lunar transfer windows—but lacks SpaceX confirmation, hardware integration proof, or recent testing milestones, amid prioritization of high-profile Starship and Artemis missions. Historical secondary payload slips underscore this uncertainty; a shift could occur via SpaceX's next rideshare announcement or verified readiness updates before year-end.",
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}- Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch before 2027?Vol 743.5KLiq 15.7KEnd Dec 31, 2026OpenOrder book