Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

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    "context_description": "The Iranian regime's resilience amid the April 8 US-Iran ceasefire and subsequent foreign militia deployments to suppress dissent drives trader consensus to a 90.5% implied probability against collapse by June 30, reflecting effective IRGC control and institutional continuity after Supreme Leader Khamenei's killing in late February strikes and Mojtaba Khamenei's ascension. Ongoing internet blackouts exceeding 1,000 hours, executions of protesters into early April, and crackdowns on rooftop chants have contained 2025–2026 unrest despite economic crisis and recent protest surges following collapsed Islamabad peace talks and Trump's April 13 Strait of Hormuz blockade announcement. Absent unified opposition forces or major defections, historical precedents of crushed uprisings reinforce high barriers to overthrow.",
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