
Prediction market · Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power. Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify. Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ticker
will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-june-30
Volume
41.4M
24h volume
209.7K
1w volume
2.0M
Open interest
11.3M
Liquidity
644.9K
Liquidity CLOB
644.9K
Start
Dec 17, 2025
End
Jun 30, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Dec 17, 2025
Event ID
108634
Slug
will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-june-30
Markets
1
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"context_description": "The high implied probability that the Iranian regime will not fall by June 30 reflects the entrenched control of its security institutions and the lack of coordinated internal opposition capable of forcing rapid collapse in such a short window. Traders assess that ongoing sanctions, diplomatic frictions, and regional tensions have not yet triggered the elite fractures or mass mobilization needed to upend the government structure before the resolution date. Historical precedent of regime durability under comparable pressures reinforces this consensus in the prediction market. Even so, sudden escalations in protests, unexpected military defections, or abrupt external interventions could still introduce volatility, though the compressed timeline limits the realistic scope for these factors to alter the outcome.",
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}Tickers mapped from the event's catalyst themes.
Exxon Mobil Corporation
Escalation can move crude prices, refining margins, fuel costs, defense demand, and risk premiums.
Chevron Corporation
Escalation can move crude prices, refining margins, fuel costs, defense demand, and risk premiums.
ConocoPhillips
Escalation can move crude prices, refining margins, fuel costs, defense demand, and risk premiums.
Occidental Petroleum
Escalation can move crude prices, refining margins, fuel costs, defense demand, and risk premiums.
EOG Resources
Escalation can move crude prices, refining margins, fuel costs, defense demand, and risk premiums.
Diamondback Energy
Escalation can move crude prices, refining margins, fuel costs, defense demand, and risk premiums.
Devon Energy
Escalation can move crude prices, refining margins, fuel costs, defense demand, and risk premiums.
APA Corporation
Escalation can move crude prices, refining margins, fuel costs, defense demand, and risk premiums.
Coterra
Escalation can move crude prices, refining margins, fuel costs, defense demand, and risk premiums.
Schlumberger Limited
Escalation can move crude prices, refining margins, fuel costs, defense demand, and risk premiums.
Halliburton
Escalation can move crude prices, refining margins, fuel costs, defense demand, and risk premiums.
Baker Hughes
Escalation can move crude prices, refining margins, fuel costs, defense demand, and risk premiums.
Valero Energy
Escalation can move crude prices, refining margins, fuel costs, defense demand, and risk premiums.
Marathon Petroleum
Escalation can move crude prices, refining margins, fuel costs, defense demand, and risk premiums.