Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power. Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify. Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Ticker

will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-june-30

Volume

41.8M

24h volume

437.6K

1w volume

2.3M

Open interest

11.5M

Liquidity

571.9K

Liquidity CLOB

571.9K

Start

Dec 17, 2025

End

Jun 30, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Dec 17, 2025

Event ID

108634

Slug

will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-june-30

Markets

1

Raw event data
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    "context_description": "The Iranian regime's institutional continuity and control over security forces, including the Revolutionary Guards, have sustained trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% implied probability against regime change by June 30. Following the February 2026 leadership transition after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's assassination and subsequent ceasefire, authorities have contained sporadic protests and localized unrest through targeted repression without triggering elite defections or widespread instability. Ongoing U.S. sanctions, naval blockades, and economic pressures have fueled inflation and isolated demonstrations as recently as mid-May 2026, yet the regime has maintained governance and pursued diplomatic channels. Scenarios that could still shift these odds include a sudden succession crisis or coordinated internal escalation before the deadline.",
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Tickers mapped from the event's catalyst themes.

XOM

Exxon Mobil Corporation

Iran and oil risk

Escalation can move crude prices, refining margins, fuel costs, defense demand, and risk premiums.

CVX

Chevron Corporation

Iran and oil risk

Escalation can move crude prices, refining margins, fuel costs, defense demand, and risk premiums.

COP

ConocoPhillips

Iran and oil risk

Escalation can move crude prices, refining margins, fuel costs, defense demand, and risk premiums.

OXY

Occidental Petroleum

Iran and oil risk

Escalation can move crude prices, refining margins, fuel costs, defense demand, and risk premiums.

EOG

EOG Resources

Iran and oil risk

Escalation can move crude prices, refining margins, fuel costs, defense demand, and risk premiums.

FANG

Diamondback Energy

Iran and oil risk

Escalation can move crude prices, refining margins, fuel costs, defense demand, and risk premiums.

DVN

Devon Energy

Iran and oil risk

Escalation can move crude prices, refining margins, fuel costs, defense demand, and risk premiums.

APA

APA Corporation

Iran and oil risk

Escalation can move crude prices, refining margins, fuel costs, defense demand, and risk premiums.

CTRA

Coterra

Iran and oil risk

Escalation can move crude prices, refining margins, fuel costs, defense demand, and risk premiums.

SLB

Schlumberger Limited

Iran and oil risk

Escalation can move crude prices, refining margins, fuel costs, defense demand, and risk premiums.

HAL

Halliburton

Iran and oil risk

Escalation can move crude prices, refining margins, fuel costs, defense demand, and risk premiums.

BKR

Baker Hughes

Iran and oil risk

Escalation can move crude prices, refining margins, fuel costs, defense demand, and risk premiums.

VLO

Valero Energy

Iran and oil risk

Escalation can move crude prices, refining margins, fuel costs, defense demand, and risk premiums.

MPC

Marathon Petroleum

Iran and oil risk

Escalation can move crude prices, refining margins, fuel costs, defense demand, and risk premiums.