Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

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    "context_description": "The short three-week window to June 30 anchors trader consensus at 98.3% against regime collapse, as core Iranian institutions including the Guardian Council, Assembly of Experts, and IRGC have preserved operational cohesion following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes and constitutional succession to Mojtaba Khamenei. Security forces have contained earlier protest waves through targeted arrests and internet restrictions without triggering widespread defections, while an April ceasefire and ongoing diplomatic talks over nuclear issues and Strait of Hormuz transit have reinforced institutional continuity. Isolated June unrest has not escalated into coordinated national action. Sudden elite fractures, renewed nationwide demonstrations, or major military escalation before the deadline remain the primary variables that could still alter outcomes.",
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