Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power. Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify. Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Ticker

will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-june-30

Volume

26.7M

24h volume

322.5K

1w volume

3.6M

Open interest

8.5M

Liquidity

1.4M

Liquidity CLOB

1.4M

Start

Dec 17, 2025

End

Jun 30, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Dec 17, 2025

Event ID

108634

Slug

will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-june-30

Markets

1

Tags

IranIsraelMiddle EastGeopoliticsWorldPoliticsKhameneiReza PahlaviIran Regime
Raw event data
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    "context_description": "Trader consensus heavily favors the Iranian regime enduring past June 30, reflecting its resilience amid the ongoing US-Israel military campaign launched February 28. Despite Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's assassination in early March and subsequent succession maneuvers, no widespread protests or uprisings have materialized, with opposition forces described as weak and internet shutdowns—now at historic lows—curbing dissent. In the past 48 hours, Tehran rejected a US ceasefire proposal with ten conditions, while President Trump threatened strikes on power plants and bridges unless the Strait of Hormuz reopens, yet regime officials project control through defiant statements and ballistic missile responses. Historical patterns of repression, as seen in January's deadly crackdowns, bolster expectations of stability barring major escalations like internal military defections or intensified external pressure.",
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