
Prediction market · Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Ticker
will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027
Volume
4.2M
24h volume
516.2K
1w volume
2.5M
Open interest
1.5M
Liquidity
308.2K
Liquidity CLOB
308.2K
Start
Nov 5, 2025
End
Dec 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Nov 5, 2025
Event ID
73130
Slug
will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027
Markets
1
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"context_description": "Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 58.5% chance of U.S. ground invasion of Iran before 2027, driven by escalating military actions since U.S.-Israeli airstrikes began on February 28 targeting Iran's nuclear sites, missile facilities, and leadership. President Trump's latest 24-hour extension of his April 8 ultimatum for a ceasefire—following Iran's rejection of U.S. proposals and vows of \"crushing\" retaliation—has intensified fears of broader strikes on Iranian power plants and infrastructure. Recent U.S. Central Command videos confirm ongoing precision hits on military targets, amid Iranian missile barrages on Israel and Gulf allies, naval clashes like the claimed USS Tripoli strike, and massive U.S. troop deployments near the Strait of Hormuz. Failed diplomacy and Hormuz closure risks signal to traders a pathway to ground operations, though rapid de-escalation remains possible.",
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