Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

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    "context_description": "Recent diplomatic progress following the February–May 2026 U.S.-Israel military campaign against Iran has shifted focus toward de-escalation and negotiations, supporting trader consensus on an 81.5% probability against a U.S. invasion before 2027. A June memorandum of understanding mediated with regional partners outlined sanctions relief, oil export waivers, reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and a $300 billion reconstruction framework tied to further nuclear talks, while July flare-ups prompted renewed U.S. strikes but stopped short of ground operations or regime-change objectives. Ongoing technical discussions in Switzerland and Islamabad, including commitments on enriched uranium inspections and verified steps, reflect administration emphasis on verifiable diplomacy over sustained offensive action. With the conflict having transitioned to brinkmanship and economic incentives rather than territorial control, these developments align with historical patterns favoring negotiated settlements in similar regional disputes.",
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