Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

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    "context_description": "Recent U.S.-Iran tensions center on control of the Strait of Hormuz, naval blockades, and sanctions rather than ground operations. Following the breakdown of the June 2026 memorandum of understanding and renewed shipping attacks, the Trump administration has emphasized \"economic D-Day\" measures, expanded sanctions, and airstrikes to enforce compliance, with no announced plans for large-scale troop deployments. Ongoing diplomatic backchannels, Iranian internal divisions over concessions, and the high costs of occupation have reinforced trader views that military strategy will remain limited to air, naval, and financial tools through the end of 2026. Scheduled talks and regional mediation efforts further support the current 83.5% implied probability against invasion before 2027.",
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