Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

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    "context_description": "President Trump's April 6 ultimatum demanding Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz by April 7—or face U.S. strikes on all bridges and power plants—has driven trader consensus to a 59% implied probability of a U.S. ground invasion before 2027, amid the ongoing war launched February 28 with massive U.S.-Israeli airstrikes degrading Iran's military, navy, and missile capabilities. Recent U.S. deployments of Marine expeditionary units and the 82nd Airborne signal preparation for potential amphibious assaults, bolstered by Gulf allies like the UAE urging ground operations. Iran’s retaliatory missile barrages on Israel and U.S. bases in the region, coupled with rejected ceasefire proposals, heighten escalation risks, though diplomatic off-ramps remain amid disputed talks on nuclear curbs and sanctions relief.",
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