AWS service disrupted by...?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Amazon Web services experiences any service interruption event with a severity classification of “disrupted” by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The severity classification of an AWS service interruption event may be found on the AWS Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status) when the relevant event is selected under “List of events.” Only publicly visible service events listed on the AWS Health Dashboard status page qualify. Account-specific AWS Health events do not count. Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues whose severity AWS classifies as “disrupted.” This market will resolve as soon as the severity of any service interruption is classified as “disrupted”, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections. Revisions to the severity classification of any event to a classification of “disrupted” will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe. If an incident is ongoing at this market’s resolution time, the market may remain open until that incident receives an official severity classification, and it will resolve based on the first such classification published. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Amazon Web Services Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status).
Ticker
aws-service-disrupted-by-june-30
Volume
10.1K
Open interest
5
Liquidity
70
Liquidity CLOB
70
Start
Apr 30, 2026
End
Aug 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Apr 30, 2026
Event ID
428608
Slug
aws-service-disrupted-by-june-30
Markets
4
Raw event data
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"context_description": "Recent geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has physically damaged AWS infrastructure in the ME-CENTRAL-1 region, driving current trader focus on external factors like power and connectivity failures over internal software or human-error issues. This follows the May 2026 us-east-1 cooling outage that lasted 28 hours and earlier DynamoDB-related disruptions, highlighting recurring single-region vulnerabilities in AWS's dominant cloud platform. Traders monitor AWS Health Dashboard updates and any official statements on recovery timelines, while noting limited competitive pressure from Azure or Google Cloud amid ongoing regional instability that could extend the incident. Upcoming catalysts include potential de-escalation or further infrastructure reports that might shift implied probabilities before resolution.",
"context_requires_regen": false,
"context_updated_at": "2026-08-18T14:20:15.553Z"
},
"version": "v1"
}Related stocks
Tickers mapped from the event's catalyst themes.
NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation
China and Taiwan
Semiconductors and hardware supply chains are exposed to Taiwan manufacturing, China demand, and export-control policy.
AMD
Advanced Micro Devices Inc.
China and Taiwan
Semiconductors and hardware supply chains are exposed to Taiwan manufacturing, China demand, and export-control policy.
AVGO
Broadcom Inc.
China and Taiwan
Semiconductors and hardware supply chains are exposed to Taiwan manufacturing, China demand, and export-control policy.
TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing
China and Taiwan
Semiconductors and hardware supply chains are exposed to Taiwan manufacturing, China demand, and export-control policy.
ASML
ASML Holding N.V.
China and Taiwan
Semiconductors and hardware supply chains are exposed to Taiwan manufacturing, China demand, and export-control policy.
AMAT
Applied Materials Inc.
China and Taiwan
Semiconductors and hardware supply chains are exposed to Taiwan manufacturing, China demand, and export-control policy.
LRCX
Lam Research Corporation
China and Taiwan
Semiconductors and hardware supply chains are exposed to Taiwan manufacturing, China demand, and export-control policy.
KLAC
KLA Corporation
China and Taiwan
Semiconductors and hardware supply chains are exposed to Taiwan manufacturing, China demand, and export-control policy.
MU
Micron Technology Inc.
China and Taiwan
Semiconductors and hardware supply chains are exposed to Taiwan manufacturing, China demand, and export-control policy.
SMCI
Super Micro Computer Inc.
China and Taiwan
Semiconductors and hardware supply chains are exposed to Taiwan manufacturing, China demand, and export-control policy.
AAPL
Apple Inc.
China and Taiwan
Semiconductors and hardware supply chains are exposed to Taiwan manufacturing, China demand, and export-control policy.
DELL
Dell Technologies Inc.
China and Taiwan
Semiconductors and hardware supply chains are exposed to Taiwan manufacturing, China demand, and export-control policy.
GOOGL
Alphabet Inc. Class A
AI and compute
AI events can shift accelerator demand, cloud capex, networking spend, server demand, and software sentiment.
ANET
Arista Networks Inc.
China and Taiwan
Semiconductors and hardware supply chains are exposed to Taiwan manufacturing, China demand, and export-control policy.
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