US recession by end of 2027?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met: 1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2027 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025, 2026, or 2027, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2027. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2027 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2027 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2027 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then. The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Ticker
us-recession-by-end-of-2027-20260807185409760
Volume
637
Open interest
454
Liquidity
17.1K
Liquidity CLOB
17.1K
Start
Aug 7, 2026
End
Dec 31, 2027
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Aug 7, 2026
Event ID
812474
Slug
us-recession-by-end-of-2027-20260807185409760
Markets
1
Raw event data
{
"id": "812474",
"ticker": "us-recession-by-end-of-2027-20260807185409760",
"slug": "us-recession-by-end-of-2027-20260807185409760",
"title": "US recession by end of 2027?",
"description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:\n\n1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2027 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). \n\n2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025, 2026, or 2027, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2027.\n\nOtherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nNote that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to \"Yes\". If on December 31, 2027 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2027 is published, at which point it will resolve to \"Yes\" if Q4 2027 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.\n\nThe resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product",
"resolutionSource": "",
"startDate": "2026-08-07T19:45:31.289582Z",
"creationDate": "2026-08-07T19:47:55.319956Z",
"endDate": "2027-12-31T23:59:00Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-recession-in-2025-01ZjnLjvO4a3.jpg",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-recession-in-2025-01ZjnLjvO4a3.jpg",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"archived": false,
"new": false,
"featured": false,
"restricted": true,
"liquidity": 17053.8627,
"volume": 636.700476,
"openInterest": 454.482217,
"sortBy": "ascending",
"createdAt": "2026-08-07T19:43:28.0576Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-08-18T17:44:28.211614Z",
"competitive": 0.9476651898884124,
"enableOrderBook": true,
"liquidityClob": 17053.8627,
"negRisk": false,
"commentCount": 0,
"markets": [
{
"id": "3407418",
"question": "US recession by end of 2027?",
"conditionId": "0x3407f91ec33975dff75a9ef4054d40d1bf73a64fbb09a4b40026639f46f8a577",
"slug": "us-recession-by-end-of-2027-20260807185409760",
"resolutionSource": "",
"endDate": "2027-12-31T23:59:00Z",
"liquidity": "17053.8627",
"startDate": "2026-08-07T19:45:31.289582Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-recession-in-2025-01ZjnLjvO4a3.jpg",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-recession-in-2025-01ZjnLjvO4a3.jpg",
"description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:\n\n1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2027 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). \n\n2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025, 2026, or 2027, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2027.\n\nOtherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nNote that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to \"Yes\". If on December 31, 2027 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2027 is published, at which point it will resolve to \"Yes\" if Q4 2027 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.\n\nThe resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product",
"outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
"outcomePrices": "[\"0.265\", \"0.735\"]",
"volume": "636.700476",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"marketMakerAddress": "",
"createdAt": "2026-08-07T19:43:28.442253Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-08-18T17:44:06.802432Z",
"new": false,
"featured": false,
"submitted_by": "0xF43d55F3A8B7484Ed4B6931f93CB6F9eF5Dd369D",
"archived": false,
"resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
"restricted": true,
"questionID": "0xede3cd8f166b160ffc08ce5a74a177f08c8c662d19d479fad492802a86d56150",
"enableOrderBook": true,
"orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.01,
"orderMinSize": 5,
"volumeNum": 636.700476,
"liquidityNum": 17053.8627,
"endDateIso": "2027-12-31",
"startDateIso": "2026-08-07",
"hasReviewedDates": true,
"clobTokenIds": "[\"39053642040328665826826916845082848880800185180362801758788039691810400872901\", \"43592136667213140930259773463306587489357493048595432852155453687150485948108\"]",
"comboStatus": "disabled",
"umaBond": "500",
"umaReward": "5",
"volumeClob": 636.700476,
"liquidityClob": 17053.8627,
"makerBaseFee": 1000,
"takerBaseFee": 1000,
"customLiveness": 0,
"acceptingOrders": true,
"negRisk": false,
"negRiskRequestID": "",
"ready": false,
"funded": false,
"acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-08-07T19:44:43Z",
"cyom": false,
"competitive": 0.9476651898884124,
"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
"approved": true,
"clobRewards": [
{
"id": "1281068",
"conditionId": "0x3407f91ec33975dff75a9ef4054d40d1bf73a64fbb09a4b40026639f46f8a577",
"assetAddress": "0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174",
"rewardsAmount": 0,
"rewardsDailyRate": 5,
"startDate": "2026-08-10",
"endDate": "2500-12-31"
}
],
"rewardsMinSize": 20,
"rewardsMaxSpread": 4.5,
"spread": 0.01,
"oneDayPriceChange": -0.015,
"oneWeekPriceChange": 0.04,
"lastTradePrice": 0.29,
"bestBid": 0.26,
"bestAsk": 0.27,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"clearBookOnStart": true,
"showGmpSeries": false,
"showGmpOutcome": false,
"manualActivation": false,
"negRiskOther": false,
"umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"deployingTimestamp": "2026-08-07T19:43:48.193113Z",
"rfqEnabled": false,
"holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
"feesEnabled": true,
"requiresTranslation": false,
"feeType": "economics_fees",
"feeSchedule": {
"exponent": 1,
"rate": 0.05,
"takerOnly": true,
"rebateRate": 0.25
},
"version": "v1"
}
],
"series": [
{
"id": "12542",
"ticker": "us-recession-by",
"slug": "us-recession-by",
"title": "US recession by",
"recurrence": "annual",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"archived": false,
"createdAt": "2026-08-07T14:26:40.829506Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-08-18T17:44:51.740817Z",
"volume24hr": 752.76,
"volume": 1705319.3753079998,
"liquidity": 58890.2304,
"commentCount": 69,
"requiresTranslation": false
}
],
"tags": [
{
"id": "100328",
"label": "Economy",
"slug": "economy",
"forceShow": false,
"createdAt": "2024-08-05T05:34:54.235643Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-04-17T20:29:06.948273Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "107",
"label": "Business",
"slug": "business",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:20:37.48+00",
"createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:20:37.488Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-04-17T20:26:28.786983Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "101247",
"label": "Macro Graph",
"slug": "macro-graph",
"forceShow": false,
"createdAt": "2024-11-12T22:58:34.324278Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-04-17T20:15:31.330002Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "101800",
"label": "Economic Policy",
"slug": "economic-policy",
"forceShow": false,
"createdAt": "2025-02-06T18:05:50.554703Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-04-17T20:34:30.088167Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
}
],
"cyom": false,
"showAllOutcomes": true,
"showMarketImages": true,
"enableNegRisk": false,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"seriesSlug": "us-recession-by",
"gmpChartMode": "default",
"negRiskAugmented": false,
"estimateValue": false,
"cumulativeMarkets": false,
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"requiresTranslation": false,
"eventMetadata": {
"context_description": "Sustained U.S. GDP growth forecasts of 2.1-2.3% for 2026 and into 2027, paired with a stable unemployment rate near 4.3%, underpin the 74% market-implied probability against recession by end-2027. AI-driven capital spending and business investment continue to support expansion amid softer consumer demand, while July CPI at 3.4% shows sticky but contained inflation. The Federal Reserve's policy hold at the 3.5-3.75% funds rate range reflects caution on price stability without signaling imminent tightening that could tip the economy into contraction. Upcoming FOMC decisions, Q3 GDP releases, and labor data will serve as key near-term catalysts shaping trader sentiment on the path through 2027.",
"context_requires_regen": false,
"context_updated_at": "2026-08-18T17:34:28.162Z"
},
"version": "v1"
}Related stocks
Tickers mapped from the event's catalyst themes.
COIN
Coinbase Global Inc.
Crypto policy
Policy markets can change trading volume, token custody demand, mining economics, and payment-network competitive pressure.
JPM
JPMorgan Chase & Co.
Fed rates and inflation
Rates and inflation affect discount rates, loan demand, credit quality, consumer spending, housing, and long-duration equity multiples.
BAC
Bank of America Corporation
Fed rates and inflation
Rates and inflation affect discount rates, loan demand, credit quality, consumer spending, housing, and long-duration equity multiples.
HOOD
Robinhood Markets Inc.
Crypto policy
Policy markets can change trading volume, token custody demand, mining economics, and payment-network competitive pressure.
MSTR
Strategy Inc.
Crypto policy
Policy markets can change trading volume, token custody demand, mining economics, and payment-network competitive pressure.
WFC
Wells Fargo & Company
Fed rates and inflation
Rates and inflation affect discount rates, loan demand, credit quality, consumer spending, housing, and long-duration equity multiples.
C
Citigroup Inc.
Fed rates and inflation
Rates and inflation affect discount rates, loan demand, credit quality, consumer spending, housing, and long-duration equity multiples.
MARA
MARA Holdings, Inc.
Crypto policy
Policy markets can change trading volume, token custody demand, mining economics, and payment-network competitive pressure.
GS
Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
Fed rates and inflation
Rates and inflation affect discount rates, loan demand, credit quality, consumer spending, housing, and long-duration equity multiples.
RIOT
Riot Platforms, Inc.
Crypto policy
Policy markets can change trading volume, token custody demand, mining economics, and payment-network competitive pressure.
CLSK
CleanSpark, Inc.
Crypto policy
Policy markets can change trading volume, token custody demand, mining economics, and payment-network competitive pressure.
MS
Morgan Stanley
Fed rates and inflation
Rates and inflation affect discount rates, loan demand, credit quality, consumer spending, housing, and long-duration equity multiples.
HUT
Hut 8 Corp.
Crypto policy
Policy markets can change trading volume, token custody demand, mining economics, and payment-network competitive pressure.
SCHW
Charles Schwab Corporation
Fed rates and inflation
Rates and inflation affect discount rates, loan demand, credit quality, consumer spending, housing, and long-duration equity multiples.
- US recession by end of 2027?Vol 637Liq 17.1KEnd Dec 31, 2027OpenOrder book